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The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan

2017-01-18 Social Science
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Release : 2017-01-18
Genre : Social Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 599/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan by : Mr.Niklas J Westelius

Download or read book The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan written by Mr.Niklas J Westelius. This book was released on 2017-01-18. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on total factor productivity and deflationary pressures.

Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan

2019-02-15 Social Science
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Release : 2019-02-15
Genre : Social Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 235/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan by : Mr.Fei Han

Download or read book Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan written by Mr.Fei Han. This book was released on 2019-02-15. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.

Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan

2019
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Release : 2019
Genre :
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 206/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan by : Mr.Fei Han

Download or read book Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan written by Mr.Fei Han. This book was released on 2019. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?

2018-11-28 Business & Economics
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Release : 2018-11-28
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 112/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them? by : Mariana Colacelli

Download or read book Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them? written by Mariana Colacelli. This book was released on 2018-11-28. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan’s outlook using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan’s demographic headwinds — a declining and ageing population — on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan’s real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.

The Great Demographic Reversal

2020-08-08 Business & Economics
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Release : 2020-08-08
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 572/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis The Great Demographic Reversal by : Charles Goodhart

Download or read book The Great Demographic Reversal written by Charles Goodhart. This book was released on 2020-08-08. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.

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