Author : Lars E. O. Svensson
Release : 2005
Genre : Economic forecasting
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : /5 ( reviews)
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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty by : Lars E. O. Svensson
Download or read book Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty written by Lars E. O. Svensson. This book was released on 2005. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables. The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple i.i.d. model deviations; serially correlated model deviations; estimable regime-switching models; more complex structural uncertainty about very different models, for instance, backward- and forward-looking models; time-varying central-bank judgment about the state of model uncertainty; and so forth. We provide an algorithm for finding the optimal policy as well as solutions for arbitrary policy functions. This allows us to compute and plot consistent distribution forecasts---fan charts---of target variables and instruments. Our methods hence extend certainty equivalence and "mean forecast targeting" to more general certainty non-equivalence and "distribution forecast targeting.""--National Bureau of Economic Research web site