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Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy

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Release : 2005
Genre : Econometric models
Kind : eBook
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Book Synopsis Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy by : Carlo A. Favero

Download or read book Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy written by Carlo A. Favero. This book was released on 2005. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Parameters' Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy

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Author :
Release : 2001
Genre :
Kind : eBook
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Book Synopsis Parameters' Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy by : Carlo A. Favero

Download or read book Parameters' Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy written by Carlo A. Favero. This book was released on 2001. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico

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Author :
Release : 2007
Genre :
Kind : eBook
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Book Synopsis Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico by :

Download or read book Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico written by . This book was released on 2007. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty

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Release : 2005
Genre : Economic forecasting
Kind : eBook
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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty by : Lars E. O. Svensson

Download or read book Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty written by Lars E. O. Svensson. This book was released on 2005. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables. The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple i.i.d. model deviations; serially correlated model deviations; estimable regime-switching models; more complex structural uncertainty about very different models, for instance, backward- and forward-looking models; time-varying central-bank judgment about the state of model uncertainty; and so forth. We provide an algorithm for finding the optimal policy as well as solutions for arbitrary policy functions. This allows us to compute and plot consistent distribution forecasts---fan charts---of target variables and instruments. Our methods hence extend certainty equivalence and "mean forecast targeting" to more general certainty non-equivalence and "distribution forecast targeting.""--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks

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Author :
Release : 2017-07-21
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 752/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks by : Davide Debortoli

Download or read book Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks written by Davide Debortoli. This book was released on 2017-07-21. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.

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