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An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan

2023-08-25 Business & Economics
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Release : 2023-08-25
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Synopsis An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan by : Adel Al-Sharkas

Download or read book An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan written by Adel Al-Sharkas. This book was released on 2023-08-25. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has developed a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to serve as a reliable analytical framework for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and decision-making under a pegged exchange rate regime. At the heart of the FPAS is the CBJ’s extended Jordan Analysis Model (JAM2.0). The model captures the monetary transmission mechanism and provides a consistent monetary policy framework that uses the exchange rate as an effective nominal anchor. This paper outlines the structure and properties of JAM2.0 and emphasizes the enhanced interplay and tradeoffs among monetary, fiscal, and foreign exchange management policies. Simulation and forecasting exercises demonstrate JAM2.0’s ability to match key stylized facts of the Jordanian economy, produce accurate forecasts of important macroeconomic variables, and explain the critical relationships among policies.

Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Framework for Currency in Circulation

2022-04-07 Business & Economics
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Release : 2022-04-07
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Synopsis Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Framework for Currency in Circulation by : International Monetary

Download or read book Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Framework for Currency in Circulation written by International Monetary. This book was released on 2022-04-07. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The currency in circulation forecasting model presently used by the Central Bank of Jordan is aligned with international practices and provides a solid basis for liquidity management. The central bank uses an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with many indicator variables to model binary seasonality and to capture special events. The ARIMA model is fitted on daily currency in circulation data using a standard maximum likelihood estimator. This ARIMA approach is aligned with the models traditionally used by central banks in emerging and middle-income countries.

A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy

2008-12-01 Business & Economics
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Release : 2008-12-01
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 368/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy by : Mr.Ondrej Kamenik

Download or read book A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy written by Mr.Ondrej Kamenik. This book was released on 2008-12-01. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.

Jordan

2024-07
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Release : 2024-07
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Book Synopsis Jordan by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Download or read book Jordan written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.. This book was released on 2024-07. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jordan’s economy continues to show resilience despite a challenging external environment. The economy continues to grow, albeit at a somewhat slower pace, inflation is low, and reserve buffers are strong. Growth is projected to pick up pace in 2025, contingent upon the Israel-Gaza conflict ending and its impact fading. Uncertainty is high, however, and structural challenges remain, with continued high unemployment.

Monetary Policy and the Central Bank in Jordan

2009-09 Business & Economics
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Release : 2009-09
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and the Central Bank in Jordan by : Samar Maziad

Download or read book Monetary Policy and the Central Bank in Jordan written by Samar Maziad. This book was released on 2009-09. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) and its operational independence changed over time in line with the evolution of the monetary policy framework and as a result of the currency crisis in the late 1980s. The paper examines the developments of the CBJ, its independence in conducting monetary policy and the various instruments at its disposal, with special focus on the certificates of deposit (CDs) market, the main monetary policy instrument, and the treasury bill market. The paper also examines the issue of the autonomy of monetary policy in Jordan given the influence of world interest rates. Although, Jordan operates an exchange rate peg, which has been fixed to the USD since 1995, there is some room for flexibility in operating monetary policy in the short-run, where the CBJ has some autonomy in determining the spread between domestic and US interest rates. VAR and VECM results suggest that the response of the policy rate in Jordan to innovations in the US Federal Fund's rate is less than one-for-one. In the short-run, the CBJ appears to conduct monetary policy in response to domestic inflation and a measure of the domestic output gap.

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