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Worst-Case Economics

2017-10-23 Business & Economics
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Release : 2017-10-23
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 080/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Worst-Case Economics by : Frank Ackerman

Download or read book Worst-Case Economics written by Frank Ackerman. This book was released on 2017-10-23. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Worst-case scenarios are all too real, and all too common. The financial crisis of 2008 was not the first or the last to destroy jobs, homeownership and the savings of millions of people. Hurricanes clobber communities from New York to Bangladesh. How bad will the next catastrophe be, and how soon will it happen? Climate and financial crises are serious events, requiring vigorous responses. Yet public policy is trapped in an obsolete framework, with a simplistic focus on average or likely outcomes rather than dangerous extremes. What would it take to create better analyses of extreme events in climate and finance, and an appropriate policy framework for worst-case risks? ‘Worst-Case Economics: Extreme Events in Climate and Finance’ offers accessible and surprising answers to these crucial questions.

Algorithms for Worst-Case Design and Applications to Risk Management

2009-02-09 Mathematics
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Release : 2009-02-09
Genre : Mathematics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 113/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Algorithms for Worst-Case Design and Applications to Risk Management by : Berç Rustem

Download or read book Algorithms for Worst-Case Design and Applications to Risk Management written by Berç Rustem. This book was released on 2009-02-09. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognizing that robust decision making is vital in risk management, this book provides concepts and algorithms for computing the best decision in view of the worst-case scenario. The main tool used is minimax, which ensures robust policies with guaranteed optimal performance that will improve further if the worst case is not realized. The applications considered are drawn from finance, but the design and algorithms presented are equally applicable to problems of economic policy, engineering design, and other areas of decision making. Critically, worst-case design addresses not only Armageddon-type uncertainty. Indeed, the determination of the worst case becomes nontrivial when faced with numerous--possibly infinite--and reasonably likely rival scenarios. Optimality does not depend on any single scenario but on all the scenarios under consideration. Worst-case optimal decisions provide guaranteed optimal performance for systems operating within the specified scenario range indicating the uncertainty. The noninferiority of minimax solutions--which also offer the possibility of multiple maxima--ensures this optimality. Worst-case design is not intended to necessarily replace expected value optimization when the underlying uncertainty is stochastic. However, wise decision making requires the justification of policies based on expected value optimization in view of the worst-case scenario. Conversely, the cost of the assured performance provided by robust worst-case decision making needs to be evaluated relative to optimal expected values. Written for postgraduate students and researchers engaged in optimization, engineering design, economics, and finance, this book will also be invaluable to practitioners in risk management.

Worst-Case Scenarios

2009-05-15 Political Science
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Release : 2009-05-15
Genre : Political Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 648/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Worst-Case Scenarios by : Cass R. Sunstein

Download or read book Worst-Case Scenarios written by Cass R. Sunstein. This book was released on 2009-05-15. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? Cass Sunstein explores these and other worst-case scenarios and how we might best prevent them in this vivid, illuminating, and highly original analysis. Singling out the problems of terrorism and climate change, Sunstein explores our susceptibility to two opposite and unhelpful reactions: panic and utter neglect. He shows how private individuals and public officials might best respond to low-probability risks of disaster—emphasizing the need to know what we will lose from precautions as well as from inaction. Finally, he offers an understanding of the uses and limits of cost–benefit analysis, especially when current generations are imposing risks on future generations. Throughout, Sunstein uses climate change as a defining case, because it dramatically illustrates the underlying principles. But he also discusses terrorism, depletion of the ozone layer, genetic modification of food, hurricanes, and worst-case scenarios faced in our ordinary lives. Sunstein concludes that if we can avoid the twin dangers of overreaction and apathy, we will be able to ameliorate if not avoid future catastrophes, retaining our sanity as well as scarce resources that can be devoted to more constructive ends.

Beyond the Worst-Case Analysis of Algorithms

2021-01-14 Computers
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Release : 2021-01-14
Genre : Computers
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 315/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Beyond the Worst-Case Analysis of Algorithms by : Tim Roughgarden

Download or read book Beyond the Worst-Case Analysis of Algorithms written by Tim Roughgarden. This book was released on 2021-01-14. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces exciting new methods for assessing algorithms for problems ranging from clustering to linear programming to neural networks.

Algorithms for Worst-case Design and Applications to Risk Management

2002 Algorithms
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Release : 2002
Genre : Algorithms
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 960/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Algorithms for Worst-case Design and Applications to Risk Management by :

Download or read book Algorithms for Worst-case Design and Applications to Risk Management written by . This book was released on 2002. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognizing that robust decision making is vital in risk management, this book provides concepts and algorithms for computing the best decision in view of the worst-case scenario. The main tool used is minimax, which ensures robust policies with guaranteed optimal performance that will improve further if the worst case is not realized. The applications considered are drawn from finance, but the design and algorithms presented are equally applicable to problems of economic policy, engineering design, and other areas of decision making. Critically, worst-case design addresses not only Armageddon-

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