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Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems

2005-03-11 Science
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Release : 2005-03-11
Genre : Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 730/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems by : Reuben R. McDaniel

Download or read book Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems written by Reuben R. McDaniel. This book was released on 2005-03-11. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complexity science has been a source of new insight in physical and social systems and has demonstrated that unpredictability and surprise are fundamental aspects of the world around us. This book is the outcome of a discussion meeting of leading scholars and critical thinkers with expertise in complex systems sciences and leaders from a variety of organizations, sponsored by the Prigogine Center at The University of Texas at Austin and the Plexus Institute, to explore strategies for understanding uncertainty and surprise. Besides contributions to the conference, it includes a key digest by the editors as well as a commentary by the late nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine, "Surprises in half of a century". The book is intended for researchers and scientists in complexity science, as well as for a broad interdisciplinary audience of both practitioners and scholars. It will well serve those interested in the research issues and in the application of complexity science to physical and social systems.

Uncertainty Management in Simulation-Optimization of Complex Systems

2015-06-29 Business & Economics
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Release : 2015-06-29
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 470/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty Management in Simulation-Optimization of Complex Systems by : Gabriella Dellino

Download or read book Uncertainty Management in Simulation-Optimization of Complex Systems written by Gabriella Dellino. This book was released on 2015-06-29. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ​This book aims at illustrating strategies to account for uncertainty in complex systems described by computer simulations. When optimizing the performances of these systems, accounting or neglecting uncertainty may lead to completely different results; therefore, uncertainty management is a major issues in simulation-optimization. Because of its wide field of applications, simulation-optimization issues have been addressed by different communities with different methods, and from slightly different perspectives. Alternative approaches have been developed, also depending on the application context, without any well-established method clearly outperforming the others. This editorial project brings together — as chapter contributors — researchers from different (though interrelated) areas; namely, statistical methods, experimental design, stochastic programming, global optimization, metamodeling, and design and analysis of computer simulation experiments. Editors’ goal is to take advantage of such a multidisciplinary environment, to offer to the readers a much deeper understanding of the commonalities and differences of the various approaches to simulation-based optimization, especially in uncertain environments. Editors aim to offer a bibliographic reference on the topic, enabling interested readers to learn about the state-of-the-art in this research area, also accounting for potential real-world applications to improve also the state-of-the-practice. Besides researchers and scientists of the field, the primary audience for the proposed book includes PhD students, academic teachers, as well as practitioners and professionals. Each of these categories of potential readers present adequate channels for marketing actions, e.g. scientific, academic or professional societies, internet-based communities, and authors or buyers of related publications.​

Embracing Complexity

2015 Complexity
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Release : 2015
Genre : Complexity
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 252/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Embracing Complexity by : Jean G. Boulton

Download or read book Embracing Complexity written by Jean G. Boulton. This book was released on 2015. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book describes what it means to say the world is complex and explores what that means for managers, policy makers and individuals. The first part of the book is about the theory and ideas of complexity. This is explained in a way that is thorough but not mathematical. It compares differing approaches, and also provides a historical perspective, showing how such thinking has been around since the beginning of civilisation. It emphasises the difference between a complexity worldview and the dominant mechanical worldview that underpins much of current management practice. It defines the complexity worldview as recognising the world is interconnected, shaped by history and the particularities of context. The comparison of the differing approaches to modelling complexity is unique in its depth and accessibility. The second part of the book uses this lens of complexity to explore issues in the fields of management, strategy, economics, and international development. It also explores how to facilitate others to recognise the implications of adopting a complex rather than a mechanical worldview and suggests methods of research to explore systemic, path-dependent emergent aspects of situations. The authors of this book span both science and management, academia and practice, thus the explanations of science are authoritative and yet the examples of changing how you live and work in the world are real and accessible. The aim of the book is to bring alive what complexity is all about and to illustrate the importance of loosening the grip of a modernist worldview with its hope for prediction, certainty and control.

Complexification

1994 Causation
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Release : 1994
Genre : Causation
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 120/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Complexification by : John L. Casti

Download or read book Complexification written by John L. Casti. This book was released on 1994. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Diversity and Complexity

2010-11-08 Political Science
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Release : 2010-11-08
Genre : Political Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 143/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Diversity and Complexity by : Scott E. Page

Download or read book Diversity and Complexity written by Scott E. Page. This book was released on 2010-11-08. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an introduction to the role of diversity in complex adaptive systems. A complex system--such as an economy or a tropical ecosystem--consists of interacting adaptive entities that produce dynamic patterns and structures. Diversity plays a different role in a complex system than it does in an equilibrium system, where it often merely produces variation around the mean for performance measures. In complex adaptive systems, diversity makes fundamental contributions to system performance. Scott Page gives a concise primer on how diversity happens, how it is maintained, and how it affects complex systems. He explains how diversity underpins system level robustness, allowing for multiple responses to external shocks and internal adaptations; how it provides the seeds for large events by creating outliers that fuel tipping points; and how it drives novelty and innovation. Page looks at the different kinds of diversity--variations within and across types, and distinct community compositions and interaction structures--and covers the evolution of diversity within complex systems and the factors that determine the amount of maintained diversity within a system. Provides a concise and accessible introduction Shows how diversity underpins robustness and fuels tipping points Covers all types of diversity The essential primer on diversity in complex adaptive systems

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