1# Library to Find Best eBook for Read
Author : Clifford Richard Bell
Release : 1979
Genre : Prediction (Psychology)
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 727/5 ( reviews)
Book Synopsis Uncertain Outcomes by : Clifford Richard Bell
Download or read book Uncertain Outcomes written by Clifford Richard Bell. This book was released on 1979. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Charles F. Manski
Release : 2013-02-14
Genre : Political Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 541/5 ( reviews)
Book Synopsis Public Policy in an Uncertain World by : Charles F. Manski
Download or read book Public Policy in an Uncertain World written by Charles F. Manski. This book was released on 2013-02-14. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers.
Author : Clifford Richard Bell
Release : 1979
Genre : Psychology
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : /5 ( reviews)
Book Synopsis Uncertain Outcomes by : Clifford Richard Bell
Download or read book Uncertain Outcomes written by Clifford Richard Bell. This book was released on 1979. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Research Council
Release : 2006-10-09
Genre : Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 538/5 ( reviews)
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council. This book was released on 2006-10-09. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author : Iris R. Firstenberg
Release : 2014-08-15
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 356/5 ( reviews)
Book Synopsis Extraordinary Outcomes by : Iris R. Firstenberg
Download or read book Extraordinary Outcomes written by Iris R. Firstenberg. This book was released on 2014-08-15. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Steel your team against the unexpected by planning for uncertainty Extraordinary Outcomes presents an innovative approach to thinking and planning, giving leaders a playbook for dealing with uncertainty. Written by internationally recognized authorities on problem solving and creativity in organizations, this book provides an alternative outlook on business strategy and people management for leaders navigating uncertain waters, where the future is anything but guaranteed. The framework is the result of research in multiple fields and the authors' experiences with individuals, teams, and organizations, with examples from real-world situations that illustrate the concepts and dynamics at work to give readers deeper insight. The focus is on conquering uncertainty – eliminating it where possible, reducing it where it can be reduced, and embracing it when it's inevitable. Traditional ways of thinking and planning do not work in the face of an uncertain future. Frequently there are just no guarantees, nothing written in stone, and even a fortune-teller couldn't accurately predict the outcome. Extraordinary Outcomes helps leaders prepare for that, with strategies geared toward preparedness and embracing uncertainty. Learn why skills and talent are only two pieces of a bigger puzzle Discover how to better galvanize the team, and keep them motivated long-term Connect to a purpose that inspires enthusiastic engagement Conquer uncertainty, and develop a strategy for dealing with mistakes No one likes to be caught off guard, and the consequences can be severe at the organizational level. Leaders can't be psychic, but they can plan for possible outcomes and always have a solution at the ready. For those who like to have an answer for everything, Extraordinary Outcomes provides a roadmap toward an uncertainty-proof strategy for doing business.
