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Textbooks on the Phillips Curve

2014
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Release : 2014
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Book Synopsis Textbooks on the Phillips Curve by : James Forder

Download or read book Textbooks on the Phillips Curve written by James Forder. This book was released on 2014. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I consider the representation of theory concerning the relationship of inflation and unemployment, as presented in a sample of economics textbooks from the 1940s to the 1980s. It is argued that they contain nothing to contradict the impression from Forder, Macroeconomics and the Phillips curve myth, that the history of the Phillips curve as commonly understood in the 1980s and after is fictitious. Indeed, the study of the textbooks substantially confirms the conclusions there. Amongst the findings pointing in this direction is that the 1960s editions of the textbooks give no impression of there being a naïve faith in the possibility of maintaining low unemployment with excess demand and inflationary policy. Even in cases where later editions of the same textbooks assert very firmly that such views were widespread, their expression is not to be found in the 1960s editions.

A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment

2015-02-25 Business & Economics
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Release : 2015-02-25
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 070/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment by : Laurence M. Ball

Download or read book A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment written by Laurence M. Ball. This book was released on 2015-02-25. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed’s series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.

The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets

1976 Business & Economics
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Release : 1976
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Synopsis The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets by : Karl Brunner

Download or read book The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets written by Karl Brunner. This book was released on 1976. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy

2009-09-11 Business & Economics
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Release : 2009-09-11
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 20X/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy by : Jeff Fuhrer

Download or read book Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy written by Jeff Fuhrer. This book was released on 2009-09-11. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment. In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications. The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy. Contributors Lawrence Ball, Ben Bernanke, Oliver Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Gali, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartisz Mackowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian R. Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson

Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

2014-10-09 Business & Economics
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Release : 2014-10-09
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 567/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth by : James Forder

Download or read book Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth written by James Forder. This book was released on 2014-10-09. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reconsiders the role of the Phillips curve in macroeconomic analysis in the first twenty years following the famous work by A. W. H. Phillips, after whom it is named. It argues that the story conventionally told is entirely misleading. In that story, Phillips made a great breakthrough but his work led to a view that inflationary policy could be used systematically to maintain low unemployment, and that it was only after the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps about a decade after Phillips' that this view was rejected. On the contrary, a detailed analysis of the literature of the times shows that the idea of a negative relation between wage change and unemployment - supposedly Phillips' discovery - was commonplace in the 1950s, as were the arguments attributed to Friedman and Phelps by the conventional story. And, perhaps most importantly, there is scarcely any sign of the idea of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff promoting inflationary policy, either in the theoretical literature or in actual policymaking. The book demonstrates and identifies a number of main strands of the actual thinking of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s on the question of the determination of inflation and its relation to other variables. The result is not only a rejection of the Phillips curve story as it has been told, and a reassessment of the understanding of the economists of those years of macroeconomics, but also the construction of an alternative, and historically more authentic account, of the economic theory of those times. A notable outcome is that the economic theory of the time was not nearly so naïve as it has been portrayed.

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