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Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks in the Caucasus and Central Asia

2023-08-28 Business & Economics
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Release : 2023-08-28
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Synopsis Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks in the Caucasus and Central Asia by : Mr. Tigran Poghosyan

Download or read book Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks in the Caucasus and Central Asia written by Mr. Tigran Poghosyan. This book was released on 2023-08-28. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amidst a global backdrop of persistent post-COVID inflation and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region have faced strong price pressures in recent years. Inflation is estimated to have peaked in early 2023, but still exceeds central bank targets. In particular, core inflation remains stubbornly high reflecting a combination of second-round effects, surges in global energy and food prices, and domestic demand pressures. More broadly, uncertainty and downside risks also weigh on the economic outlook, including due to regional tensions, financial turmoil related to international monetary policy normalization, and a growth slowdown in key trading partners. In this context, CCA countries’ ability to contain inflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations hinges on the credibility and effectiveness of their monetary policy frameworks. Since gaining independence in the 1990s, countries in the CCA region have made considerable progress in modernizing their monetary policy frameworks. CCA central banks have strengthened their legal frameworks and established broad de-jure independence. Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan are transitioning to inflation targeting regimes, while the central banks of Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan rely on the exchange rate as an operational target. However, the post-COVID surge in inflation has highlighted the limitations of current frameworks and triggered a fresh policy debate on the need to strengthen monetary policy effectiveness in the CCA. This paper reviews the CCA region’s monetary policy landscape, highlights challenges in monetary policy design and implementation, and identifies areas that warrant strengthening. It draws on original surveys of country authorities, IMF country teams, and the work by Unsal and others (2022). It uses novel empirical work to analyze monetary policy transmission, the link between foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate dynamics, the drivers of financial de-dollarization, and the effects of central bank communication in the CCA.

Exchange Rate Developments and Policies in the Caucasus and Central Asia

2016-05-16 Business & Economics
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Release : 2016-05-16
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 032/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Developments and Policies in the Caucasus and Central Asia by : Mr.Mark A Horton

Download or read book Exchange Rate Developments and Policies in the Caucasus and Central Asia written by Mr.Mark A Horton. This book was released on 2016-05-16. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since late 2014, exchange rates (ERs) and ER regimes of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries have come under strong pressure. This reflects the decline of oil and other commodity prices, weaker growth in Russia and China, depreciation of the Russian ruble, and appreciation of the U.S. dollar, to which CCA currencies have historically been linked. Weaker fiscal and current account balances and increased dollarization have complicated the picture. CCA countries entered this period with closely managed ER regimes and, in many cases, currencies assessed by IMF staff to be overvalued. CCA central banks have price stability as their main policy objective, and most have relied on ER stability to achieve this objective. Thus, the first policy response involved intervention in local foreign exchange (FX) markets, often with limited communication. In this context, the IMF staff has reviewed ER policy advice and implementation strategies for CCA countries.

Opening Up in the Caucasus and Central Asia

2018-06-13 Business & Economics
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Release : 2018-06-13
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 276/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Opening Up in the Caucasus and Central Asia by : Mr.Peter J Kunzel

Download or read book Opening Up in the Caucasus and Central Asia written by Mr.Peter J Kunzel. This book was released on 2018-06-13. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries are at an important juncture in their economic transition. Following significant economic progress during the 2000s, recent external shocks have revealed the underlying vulnerabilities of the current growth model. Lower commodity prices, weaker remittances, and slower growth in key trading partners reduced CCA growth, weakened external and fiscal balances, and raised public debt. the financial sector was also hit hard by large foreign exchange losses. while commodity prices have recovered somewhat since late 2014, to boost its economic potential, the region needs to find new growth drivers, diversify away from natural resources, remittances, and public spending, and generate much stronger private sector-led activity.

The Caucasus and Central Asia

2014-04-10 Business & Economics
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Release : 2014-04-10
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 140/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis The Caucasus and Central Asia by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Download or read book The Caucasus and Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.. This book was released on 2014-04-10. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have recorded significant macroeconomic achievements since independence. These countries have grown more rapidly-—on average by 7 percent over 1996–2011—-than those in many other regions of the world and poverty has declined. Inflation has come down sharply from high rates in the 1990s and interest rates have fallen. Financial sectors have deepened somewhat, as evidenced by higher deposits and lending. Fiscal policies were broadly successful in building buffers prior to the global crisis and those buffers were used effectively by many CCA countries to support growth and protect the most vulnerable as the crisis washed across the region. CCA oil and gas exporters have achieved significant improvements in living standards with the use of their energy wealth.

A Growth-Friendly Path for Building Fiscal Buffers in the Caucuses and Central Asia

2018-04-10 Business & Economics
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Release : 2018-04-10
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 166/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis A Growth-Friendly Path for Building Fiscal Buffers in the Caucuses and Central Asia by : Mr.Edward R Gemayel

Download or read book A Growth-Friendly Path for Building Fiscal Buffers in the Caucuses and Central Asia written by Mr.Edward R Gemayel. This book was released on 2018-04-10. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 2014, large and persistent external shocks have hit the CCA region, particularly a slump in global commodity prices and slower growth in its key economic partners. Fiscal accommodation, along with currency adjustment, has helped the CCA mitigate the impact of the external shocks. However, amid weakening revenues, increased public spending has widened budget deficits, weakened external balances, and increased public debts. Fiscal policy and strengthening fiscal frameworks must play a central role in helping build buffers and ensuring debt sustainability while supporting growth. This requires (1) tightening fiscal policies to reduce deficits to help restore external balance and fiscal sustainability, (2) strengthening tax systems and tax collection and tilting expenditure toward a more productive and growth-enhancing composition, and (3) implementing public financial management reforms and strengthening fiscal institutions, including through fiscal rules.

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