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Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

2016-11-15 Business & Economics
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Release : 2016-11-15
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 435/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy by : Allan Dizioli

Download or read book Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy written by Allan Dizioli. This book was released on 2016-11-15. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.

China Spillovers

2016-11-23 Business & Economics
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Release : 2016-11-23
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 637/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis China Spillovers by : Davide Furceri

Download or read book China Spillovers written by Davide Furceri. This book was released on 2016-11-23. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until recently, China has been the leading contributor to global economic growth and—since the recent global financial crisis—a stabilizing driver of its evolution. However, as China recently began to rebalance its economy away from investment and exports and toward consumption, its GDP growth slowed significantly—partly reversing the country’s contribution to global output and trade growth—and is expected to continue to decline gradually over the medium term. There is little consensus regarding the consequences of a China’s growth slowdown for the rest of the world, with some arguing that a significant slowdown in China may have large implications and possibly lead to a worldwide recession if the “rebalancing” process is not well managed, and others suggesting that even a significant slowdown in China is unlikely to have large global effects, as its role in the world economy is still limited This note contributes to the ongoing debate by analyzing how growth shocks in China affect particular regions and country groups and how the impact and key transmission channels of these growth shocks have increased over time. It finds that historically, the average impact of growth shocks in China on global output has been statistically significant but limited, but since the early 2000s, the magnitude of spillovers has significantly increased. Trade linkages remain the main transmission channels, with larger effects for net commodity exporters and countries mostly exporting manufacturing goods. Also, spillover effects tend to be larger during periods of high global uncertainty and have been positively associated with an increase in the share of industry in total value in China, which suggests an important role of the “rebalancing” process.

Investment-Led Growth in China

2012-11-06 Business & Economics
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Release : 2012-11-06
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 057/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Investment-Led Growth in China by : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja

Download or read book Investment-Led Growth in China written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja. This book was released on 2012-11-06. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, China’s growth model has become more reliant on investment and its footprint in global imports has widened substantially. Several economies within China’s supply chain are increasingly exposed to its investment-led growth and face growing risks from a deceleration in investment in China. This note quantifies potential global spillovers from an investment slowdown in China. It finds that a one percentage point slowdown in investment in China is associated with a reduction of global growth of just under one-tenth of a percentage point. The impact is about five times larger than in 2002. Regional supply chain economies and commodity exporters with relatively less diversified economies are most vulnerable to an investment slowdown in China. The spillover effects also register strongly across a range of macroeconomic, trade, and financial variables among G20 trading partners.

Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

2016-08-09 Business & Economics
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Release : 2016-08-09
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 269/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies by : Allan Dizioli

Download or read book Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies written by Allan Dizioli. This book was released on 2016-08-09. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.

China's Sustained Economic Growth

2010
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Release : 2010
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Book Synopsis China's Sustained Economic Growth by : Renai Jiang

Download or read book China's Sustained Economic Growth written by Renai Jiang. This book was released on 2010. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using data from 1986-2005, the present paper estimates the impact of direct knowledge spilled over from G-7 countries on China's economy. We use telephone line penetration rates and personnel flows to estimate the direct spillover effect. Our results show that direct knowledge spillovers through telecommunication networks and personnel flows are important components of international R&D spillovers in China. These direct channels of spillover effectively accelerate China's economic growth. Therefore, China should invest more in human capital and in its telecommunication network to enhance the absorptive capacity of direct R&D spillovers, and to increase communication with other nations, in particular the USA and Japan. More subsidies to domestic R&D research and purchase of intermediate goods will help to raise China's R&D intensity.

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