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Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade

2016-09-27 Business & Economics
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Release : 2016-09-27
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 686/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade by : Patrick Blagrave

Download or read book Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade written by Patrick Blagrave. This book was released on 2016-09-27. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.

China Spillovers

2016-11-23 Business & Economics
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Release : 2016-11-23
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 637/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis China Spillovers by : Davide Furceri

Download or read book China Spillovers written by Davide Furceri. This book was released on 2016-11-23. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until recently, China has been the leading contributor to global economic growth and—since the recent global financial crisis—a stabilizing driver of its evolution. However, as China recently began to rebalance its economy away from investment and exports and toward consumption, its GDP growth slowed significantly—partly reversing the country’s contribution to global output and trade growth—and is expected to continue to decline gradually over the medium term. There is little consensus regarding the consequences of a China’s growth slowdown for the rest of the world, with some arguing that a significant slowdown in China may have large implications and possibly lead to a worldwide recession if the “rebalancing” process is not well managed, and others suggesting that even a significant slowdown in China is unlikely to have large global effects, as its role in the world economy is still limited This note contributes to the ongoing debate by analyzing how growth shocks in China affect particular regions and country groups and how the impact and key transmission channels of these growth shocks have increased over time. It finds that historically, the average impact of growth shocks in China on global output has been statistically significant but limited, but since the early 2000s, the magnitude of spillovers has significantly increased. Trade linkages remain the main transmission channels, with larger effects for net commodity exporters and countries mostly exporting manufacturing goods. Also, spillover effects tend to be larger during periods of high global uncertainty and have been positively associated with an increase in the share of industry in total value in China, which suggests an important role of the “rebalancing” process.

Investment-Led Growth in China

2012-11-06 Business & Economics
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Release : 2012-11-06
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 057/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Investment-Led Growth in China by : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja

Download or read book Investment-Led Growth in China written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja. This book was released on 2012-11-06. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, China’s growth model has become more reliant on investment and its footprint in global imports has widened substantially. Several economies within China’s supply chain are increasingly exposed to its investment-led growth and face growing risks from a deceleration in investment in China. This note quantifies potential global spillovers from an investment slowdown in China. It finds that a one percentage point slowdown in investment in China is associated with a reduction of global growth of just under one-tenth of a percentage point. The impact is about five times larger than in 2002. Regional supply chain economies and commodity exporters with relatively less diversified economies are most vulnerable to an investment slowdown in China. The spillover effects also register strongly across a range of macroeconomic, trade, and financial variables among G20 trading partners.

China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown

2016-05-26 Business & Economics
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Release : 2016-05-26
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 568/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown by : Gee Hee Hong

Download or read book China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown written by Gee Hee Hong. This book was released on 2016-05-26. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.

Spillover Effects Of China Going Global

2016-08-18 Business & Economics
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Release : 2016-08-18
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 368/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Spillover Effects Of China Going Global by : Joseph Pelzman

Download or read book Spillover Effects Of China Going Global written by Joseph Pelzman. This book was released on 2016-08-18. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When the People's Republic of China (PRC) was granted Most Favored Nation (MFN) status by the United States in 1979, no one imagined the massive transformation the Chinese economy would make within a few decades. China's remarkable transition from merely being a “world factory”, to the source of the world's new R&D and product design and innovation since the 1980s is the key focus of Spillover Effects of China Going Global. In this insightful and unique book, Joseph Pelzman shows how the second largest world economy triggered off many spillover effects beyond mass-labour production of durable and non-durable goods — such as the provision of foreign aid to African, Latin American and Asian economies, and increasing focus on internal endogenous innovation, research and development. He provides a comprehensive look at these spillover effects and analyzes how they will undoubtedly bring positive opportunities for others within the rest of the world in the 21st Century.

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