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Author : Nancy Peregrim Marion
Release : 1996
Genre : Currency question
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : /5 ( reviews)
Book Synopsis Self-fulfilling Risk Predictions by : Nancy Peregrim Marion
Download or read book Self-fulfilling Risk Predictions written by Nancy Peregrim Marion. This book was released on 1996. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Release : 1998-08-01
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 692/5 ( reviews)
Book Synopsis Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions by : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Download or read book Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions written by Mr.Robert P. Flood. This book was released on 1998-08-01. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. This is illustrated by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a “first-generation model” of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits, and anticipatory price-setting behavior. The model is used to interpret the 1994 Mexican peso crisis.
Author : Robert P. Flood
Release : 2006
Genre :
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : /5 ( reviews)
Book Synopsis Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions by : Robert P. Flood
Download or read book Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions written by Robert P. Flood. This book was released on 2006. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. This is illustrated by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a quot;first-generation modelquot; of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits, and anticipatory price-setting behavior. The model is used to interpret the 1994 Mexican peso crisis.
Author : Robert R. Tucker
Release : 2004
Genre :
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : /5 ( reviews)
Book Synopsis Going-Concern Judgments by : Robert R. Tucker
Download or read book Going-Concern Judgments written by Robert R. Tucker. This book was released on 2004. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statement on Auditing Standards No. 59 requires auditors to assess whether substantial doubt exists about a client's ability to remain a going concern. This study reports an experimental economic test of a game-theoretic model of that judgment. Competing behavioral predictions are based on loss avoidance, risk seeking, altruism, and adversarial play. We also examine how strategic dependence affects auditors' and clients' propensity to depart from equilibrium. The auditor conveys to the client a forecast on business survival and the intention to express a clean or going-concern opinion. The client can attempt to avoid a going-concern opinion and its potential self-fulfilling prophecy effect by switching auditors. Several subjects played pure strategies consistent with loss avoidance, adversarial play, and risk seeking. Nevertheless, the experimental results support the model's prediction that the first treatment variable, self-fulfilling prophecy, leads auditors to express fewer going-concern opinions and leads clients to switch auditors more frequently, particularly when the audit evidence has low forecast accuracy. The second treatment variable, forecast accuracy, also has a significant effect on subject behavior. However, in contrast to the model's predictions, inaccurate forecasts did not lead auditors to express more clean opinions but led clients to switch auditors more frequently.
Author : Juan Yepez
Release : 2010-10-01
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 922/5 ( reviews)
Book Synopsis A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises by : Juan Yepez
Download or read book A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises written by Juan Yepez. This book was released on 2010-10-01. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In our study, the methods are given the right fundamentals and the right models and are evaluated on how closely the estimated predictions match the objectively correct predictions. We find that all methods do reasonably well when fundamentals are explosive and all do badly when fundamentals are merely highly volatile.
