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Probability and the Art of Judgment

1992-03-27 Mathematics
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Release : 1992-03-27
Genre : Mathematics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 704/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Probability and the Art of Judgment by : Richard C. Jeffrey

Download or read book Probability and the Art of Judgment written by Richard C. Jeffrey. This book was released on 1992-03-27. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spanning a period of 35 years, this collection of essays includes some of the classic works of one of the most distinquished and influential philosophers working in the field of decision theory and the theory of knowledge.

Probability and the Art of Judgment

1992-03-27 Science
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Release : 1992-03-27
Genre : Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 598/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Probability and the Art of Judgment by : Richard Jeffrey

Download or read book Probability and the Art of Judgment written by Richard Jeffrey. This book was released on 1992-03-27. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Richard Jeffrey is beyond dispute one of the most distinguished and influential philosophers working in the field of decision theory and the theory of knowledge. His work is distinctive in showing the interplay of epistemological concerns with probability and utility theory. Not only has he made use of standard probabilistic and decision theoretic tools to clarify concepts of evidential support and informed choice, he has also proposed significant modifications of the standard Bayesian position in order that it provide a better fit with actual human experience. Probability logic is viewed not as a source of judgment but as a framework for explaining the implications of probabilistic judgments and their mutual compatability This collection of essays spans a period of some 35 years and includes what have become some of the classic works in the literature. There is also one completely new piece, while in many instances Jeffrey includes afterthoughts on the older essays.

Judgment Under Uncertainty

1982-04-30 Psychology
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Release : 1982-04-30
Genre : Psychology
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 141/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Judgment Under Uncertainty by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman. This book was released on 1982-04-30. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Elicitation

2017-11-16 Business & Economics
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Release : 2017-11-16
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 521/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Elicitation by : Luis C. Dias

Download or read book Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias. This book was released on 2017-11-16. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.

Liberating Judgment

2011-01-03 Political Science
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Release : 2011-01-03
Genre : Political Science
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Book Rating : 883/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Liberating Judgment by : Douglas John Casson

Download or read book Liberating Judgment written by Douglas John Casson. This book was released on 2011-01-03. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examining the social and political upheavals that characterized the collapse of public judgment in early modern Europe, Liberating Judgment offers a unique account of the achievement of liberal democracy and self-government. The book argues that the work of John Locke instills a civic judgment that avoids the excesses of corrosive skepticism and dogmatic fanaticism, which lead to either political acquiescence or irresolvable conflict. Locke changes the way political power is assessed by replacing deteriorating vocabularies of legitimacy with a new language of justification informed by a conception of probability. For Locke, the coherence and viability of liberal self-government rests not on unassailable principles or institutions, but on the capacity of citizens to embrace probable judgment. The book explores the breakdown of the medieval understanding of knowledge and opinion, and considers how Montaigne's skepticism and Descartes' rationalism--interconnected responses to the crisis--involved a pragmatic submission to absolute rule. Locke endorses this response early on, but moves away from it when he encounters a notion of reasonableness based on probable judgment. In his mature writings, Locke instructs his readers to govern their faculties and intellectual yearnings in accordance with this new standard as well as a vocabulary of justification that might cultivate a self-government of free and equal individuals. The success of Locke's arguments depends upon citizens' willingness to take up the labor of judgment in situations where absolute certainty cannot be achieved.

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