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Probabilistic Forecasting and Bayesian Data Assimilation

2015-05-14 Computers
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Release : 2015-05-14
Genre : Computers
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 394/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Forecasting and Bayesian Data Assimilation by : Sebastian Reich

Download or read book Probabilistic Forecasting and Bayesian Data Assimilation written by Sebastian Reich. This book was released on 2015-05-14. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers key ideas and concepts. It is an ideal introduction for graduate students in any field where Bayesian data assimilation is applied.

Statistical Forecasting

2013-09
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Release : 2013-09
Genre :
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 592/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Forecasting by : Source Wikipedia

Download or read book Statistical Forecasting written by Source Wikipedia. This book was released on 2013-09. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. Pages: 28. Chapters: Bayesian inference, Calculating demand forecast accuracy, Consensus forecast, Data assimilation, Demand forecasting, Ensemble forecasting, Fan chart (time series), Forecast bias, Forecast skill, Futures techniques, Growth curve, Hindcast, International Futures, Meteorological reanalysis, Mixed data sampling, Political forecasting, Probabilistic forecasting, Probability of precipitation, Tolerance interval, Trend estimation. Excerpt: In statistics, Bayesian inference is a method of inference in which Bayes' rule is used to update the probability estimate for a hypothesis as additional evidence is learned. Bayesian updating is an important technique throughout statistics, and especially in mathematical statistics. For some cases, exhibiting a Bayesian derivation for a statistical method automatically ensures that the method works as well as any competing method. Bayesian updating is especially important in the dynamic analysis of a sequence of data. Bayesian inference has found application in a range of fields including science, engineering, philosophy, medicine, and law. In the philosophy of decision theory, Bayesian inference is closely related to discussions of subjective probability, often called "Bayesian probability." Bayesian probability provides a rational method for updating beliefs; however, non-Bayesian updating rules are compatible with rationality, according to philosophers Ian Hacking and Bas van Fraassen. Bayesian inference derives the posterior probability as a consequence of two antecedents, a prior probability and a "likelihood function" derived from a probability model for the data to be observed. Bayesian inference computes the posterior probability according to Bayes' rule: where Note that what affects the value of for different values of is only the factors and, which both appear in the...

Global Drought and Flood

2021-08-10 Science
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Release : 2021-08-10
Genre : Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 215/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Global Drought and Flood by : Huan Wu

Download or read book Global Drought and Flood written by Huan Wu. This book was released on 2021-08-10. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent advances in the modeling and remote sensing of droughts and floods Droughts and floods are causing increasing damage worldwide, often with devastating short- and long-term impacts on human society. Forecasting when they will occur, monitoring them as they develop, and learning from the past to improve disaster management is vital. Global Drought and Flood: Observation, Modeling, and Prediction presents recent advances in the modeling and remote sensing of droughts and floods. It also describes the techniques and products currently available and how they are being used in practice. Volume highlights include: Remote sensing approaches for mapping droughts and floods Physical and statistical models for monitoring and forecasting hydrologic hazards Features of various drought and flood systems and products Use by governments, humanitarian, and development stakeholders in recent disaster cases Improving the collaboration between hazard information provision and end users The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals.

Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis

2018-10-08 Business & Economics
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Release : 2018-10-08
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 438/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis by : Andy Pole

Download or read book Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis written by Andy Pole. This book was released on 2018-10-08. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical in its approach, Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis provides the theories, methods, and tools necessary for forecasting and the analysis of time series. The authors unify the concepts, model forms, and modeling requirements within the framework of the dynamic linear mode (DLM). They include a complete theoretical development of the DLM and illustrate each step with analysis of time series data. Using real data sets the authors: Explore diverse aspects of time series, including how to identify, structure, explain observed behavior, model structures and behaviors, and interpret analyses to make informed forecasts Illustrate concepts such as component decomposition, fundamental model forms including trends and cycles, and practical modeling requirements for routine change and unusual events Conduct all analyses in the BATS computer programs, furnishing online that program and the more than 50 data sets used in the text The result is a clear presentation of the Bayesian paradigm: quantified subjective judgements derived from selected models applied to time series observations. Accessible to undergraduates, this unique volume also offers complete guidelines valuable to researchers, practitioners, and advanced students in statistics, operations research, and engineering.

Data Assimilation

2015-09-05 Mathematics
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Release : 2015-09-05
Genre : Mathematics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 258/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Data Assimilation by : Kody Law

Download or read book Data Assimilation written by Kody Law. This book was released on 2015-09-05. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a systematic treatment of the mathematical underpinnings of work in data assimilation, covering both theoretical and computational approaches. Specifically the authors develop a unified mathematical framework in which a Bayesian formulation of the problem provides the bedrock for the derivation, development and analysis of algorithms; the many examples used in the text, together with the algorithms which are introduced and discussed, are all illustrated by the MATLAB software detailed in the book and made freely available online. The book is organized into nine chapters: the first contains a brief introduction to the mathematical tools around which the material is organized; the next four are concerned with discrete time dynamical systems and discrete time data; the last four are concerned with continuous time dynamical systems and continuous time data and are organized analogously to the corresponding discrete time chapters. This book is aimed at mathematical researchers interested in a systematic development of this interdisciplinary field, and at researchers from the geosciences, and a variety of other scientific fields, who use tools from data assimilation to combine data with time-dependent models. The numerous examples and illustrations make understanding of the theoretical underpinnings of data assimilation accessible. Furthermore, the examples, exercises and MATLAB software, make the book suitable for students in applied mathematics, either through a lecture course, or through self-study.

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