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Perceived Risk Versus Actual Risk to Sea-level Rise

2014 Climatic changes
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Release : 2014
Genre : Climatic changes
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Book Synopsis Perceived Risk Versus Actual Risk to Sea-level Rise by : Keren P. Bolter

Download or read book Perceived Risk Versus Actual Risk to Sea-level Rise written by Keren P. Bolter. This book was released on 2014. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global climate change stressors downscale to specific local vulnerabilities, requiring customized adaptation strategies. Southeast Florida has a high likelihood of sea-level rise impact to due to the low-lying porous limestone geology. High risk is coupled with high exposure due to high-valued coastal properties, productive ecosystems, and dense populations. Coastal populations are particularly at risk due to erosion, inundation and storm surge, but interior populations are also susceptible to rising water tables and extended periods of inundation. All of these impacts are amplified by sea-level rise. Robust sea-level rise adaptation options require significant economic costs. If perceived risk does not adequately line up with actual risk, lack of funds and preparation will prevent implementation of the most effective strategies. This study aimed to compare perceived risk to actual risk to sea-level rise in residential areas of Broward County, Florida. Perceived risk of residents was measured via an online survey and subsequently layered over actual risk in terms of flooding, storm surge, and loss of property. Using GIS, a composite vulnerability index was constructed for the actual risk and paralleled to survey responses. A spatial and statistical analysis identified the key factors influencing perceived risk. Results characterize the accuracy of risk perception in Broward County by determining if individual respondents overestimate, underestimate, or correctly estimate risks from each impact. Other distinct concerns of residents, voiced through open-response question, were evaluated qualitatively. Results suggest that perceived vulnerability is misaligned with actual vulnerability to the sea-level rise impacts explored here. Spatial patterns show that moving from north to south in the county, a shift from low to high-risk parallels a shift from overestimating to underestimating risk of property loss and storm surge. For groundwater flooding, a similar shift occurs, but the trend from overestimating to underestimating risk moves from east to west. Many concerns of residents were financial, but most related to personal experience. There are many opportunities for resilience that require communication, preparation and adaptation. Results show that effective risk communication should be tailored to the audience, and it is first and foremost to direct outreach towards low income populations in southeastern Broward County.

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

2022-04-30 Science
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Release : 2022-04-30
Genre : Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 971/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate by : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This book was released on 2022-04-30. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Water's Gonna Rise

2014 Coastal zone management
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Release : 2014
Genre : Coastal zone management
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Book Synopsis Water's Gonna Rise by : Michelle P. Covi

Download or read book Water's Gonna Rise written by Michelle P. Covi. This book was released on 2014. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sea level rise is threatening coastal areas around the world with the loss of land, damage to personal and public property, ecological impacts, displacement of populations, and exacerbated risk associated with severe storm events. While the drivers of accelerated sea-level rise are global, it is at the local and regional levels that the most immediate impacts and responses occur. Planning for sea-level rise adaptation is occurring throughout the United States, but significant barriers exist, especially in places where political tensions concerning climate change science prevail. Observation of how people understand and perceive sea-level rise risk, comprehend information about their risk, and enter into processes to manage risk can provide us with better understanding of how risk can be socially amplified or attenuated, and strategies to overcome barriers to adaptation planning. To this end, this three-part dissertation investigates sea-level rise risk at multiple scales with the objective of characterizing the social dimensions of risk production and barriers to adaptation policy in northeastern North Carolina, a region with one of the largest areas of low-lying land threatened by sea-level rise in the United States, and with high social vulnerability to natural hazards among some resident populations. The first part investigates individual risk perception using an audience-driven, document evaluation methodology that assesses reader attention, comprehension, and attitudes. Comprehension difficulties confounded concern about sea-level rise hazard yielding fear, skepticism, and fatalism. The second part examines hegemonic discourses of mistrust and fear that provide insight into barriers to adaptation planning and risk reduction efforts. Fatalistic risk perceptions and risk communication scarcity increase risk in the coastal hazardscape, especially among those with the highest social vulnerability. The lack of risk information and predominant risk perceptions reinforce uneven patterns of risk developed through the marginalization of poor populations and facilitation of land use by those with social and political advantages. The third part is a case study exploration of a public participation process that a local municipality used to confront the barriers to adaptation planning. The study enables an understanding of how mainstreaming can overcome political hurdles, and how bridging organizations help move low-capacity communities past resource limitations. The multi-scalar, risk perception-oriented approach to the examination of sea-level rise risk and policy development may provide further guidance for the study of other complex, politically- charged risks within local contexts.

Understanding Local Sea Level Rise Risk Perceptions and the Power of Maps to Change Them

2015
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Release : 2015
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Book Synopsis Understanding Local Sea Level Rise Risk Perceptions and the Power of Maps to Change Them by : David Retchless

Download or read book Understanding Local Sea Level Rise Risk Perceptions and the Power of Maps to Change Them written by David Retchless. This book was released on 2015. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sea level rise poses a significant threat to people and property in many U.S. coastal communities. Because sea level rise adaptation depends in part on recognizing this threat, there is a need to communicate sea level rise risk. However, some audiences may not be receptive to information about local sea level rise risk, particularly if they see sea level rise as a distant hazard or hold doubtful or dismissive beliefs about climate change in general. By making visible the impacts of sea level rise on local communities, sea level rise maps may meet these challenges to sea level rise communication. This dissertation explores this potential. Using an interactive map of sea level rise in Sarasota, Florida and an accompanying online survey, it considers how college students from nearby and far away from Sarasota, and with different views about climate change, vary in: 1) their ability to read information about sea level rise flooding from the map; and 2) their risk perceptions for this flooding. Post-map risk perceptions for Sarasota sea level rise are compared with pre-map risk perceptions for: 1) Sarasota sea level rise; and 2) climate change and sea level rise in general. Results indicate that respondents' read flood information from these maps accurately and in a way that is not biased by prior climate change beliefs. Results for risk perceptions show that while most respondents initially view Sarasota sea level rise as less risky than sea level rise in general, exposure to the sea level rise map raises Sarasota risk perceptions to levels equal to or above those for general sea level rise -- particularly for respondents who are doubtful about climate change or are far from Sarasota, but also for many nearby respondents. These results confirm the potential of interactive maps for communicating sea level rise risk.

The Rising Risk of Rising Water

2020 Electronic dissertations
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Release : 2020
Genre : Electronic dissertations
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Book Synopsis The Rising Risk of Rising Water by : Eleanor Rappolee

Download or read book The Rising Risk of Rising Water written by Eleanor Rappolee. This book was released on 2020. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a result of heat-trapping pollution from human activities, rising sea levels and increasing precipitation could within three decades push chronic floods on land currently home to more than 300 million people. Water levels in the Great Lakes, heavy rainfall, and flooding have all substantially increased in Michigan, causing erosion, water quality decline, and negative impacts on society. Taking action to mitigate flooding at all scales is essential to ensure social and economic sustainability. This study explores predictor variables of flood mitigation behaviors among Michigan residents in a proposed theoretical framework that synthesizes three behavioral theories: Theory of Planned Behavior, Values-Beliefs-Norms, and Protection Motivation Theory. This study also includes empirically measured actual flood risk in the theoretical framework, which is often left out in behavioral studies. Actual flood risk alone was found to weakly align with perceived flood risk and was a significant predictor of flood mitigation behavior during regression. However, when other variables were included, actual flood risk became an insignificant part of the model. Instead, subjective norms, perceived flood risk, self-efficacy, education level, having a flood-related home inspection, and having a basement emerged as significant predictors of flood mitigation behaviors. These findings lay the groundwork for future research and have implications for planning around flood mitigation and policy within and beyond the Midwest region.

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