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News Shocks in Open Economies

2015-09-29 Business & Economics
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Release : 2015-09-29
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 156/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis News Shocks in Open Economies by : Mr.Rabah Arezki

Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki. This book was released on 2015-09-29. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.

News Shocks in Open Economies

2015-09-29 Business & Economics
Download News Shocks in Open Economies PDF Online Free

Author :
Release : 2015-09-29
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 766/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis News Shocks in Open Economies by : Mr.Rabah Arezki

Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki. This book was released on 2015-09-29. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.

News and Business Cycles in Open Economies

2010
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Release : 2010
Genre :
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : /5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis News and Business Cycles in Open Economies by : Nir Jaimovich

Download or read book News and Business Cycles in Open Economies written by Nir Jaimovich. This book was released on 2010. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycle data. Therefore, the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most existing models fail. In this paper we propose a unified model that generates both aggregate and sectoral comovement in response to contemporaneous shocks and news shocks about fundamentals. The fundamentals that we consider are aggregate and sectoral TFP shocks as well as investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and a new form of preferences that allow us to parameterize the strength of short-run wealth effects on the labor supply.

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

2010-03-15 Business & Economics
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Release : 2010-03-15
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 875/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí

Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí. This book was released on 2010-03-15. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.

News and Sovereign Default Risk in Small Open Economies

2010-11 Business & Economics
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Release : 2010-11
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 147/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis News and Sovereign Default Risk in Small Open Economies by : Ceyhun Bora Durdu

Download or read book News and Sovereign Default Risk in Small Open Economies written by Ceyhun Bora Durdu. This book was released on 2010-11. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper builds a model of sovereign debt in which default risk, interest rates, and debt depend not only on current fundamentals but also on news about future fundamentals. News shocks (NS) affect equilibrium outcomes because they contain info. about the future ability of the gov¿t. to repay its debt. First, in the model with NS not all defaults occur in bad times. Second, the NS help account for key differences between emerging markets and developed economies: as the precision of the news improves the model predicts lower variability of consumption, less counter-cyclical trade balance and interest rate spreads. Finally, the model also captures the hump-shaped relationship between default rates and the precision of news obtained from the data.

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