Author : Kevin Ross
Release : 2006
Genre :
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : /5 ( reviews)
Book Synopsis Market Predictability of ECB Policy Decisions A Comparative Examination by : Kevin Ross
Download or read book Market Predictability of ECB Policy Decisions A Comparative Examination written by Kevin Ross. This book was released on 2006. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many surveys of the ECB`s monetary framework emphasize the inability of financial markets to correctly predict monetary policy decisions. At the same time, these surveys of financial market participants have given relatively high marks to the United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on their ability to be understood by financial markets. Against this background, this paper examines the ability of financial markets to correctly anticipate these three central bank policy decisions over the first 3½ years of the ECB. The paper relies on calculations that market participants employ in anticipating policy changes and on term structure regressions that provide ex post evidence of market surprises. While the results suggest that all three central banks are broadly predictable, markets have had difficulty anticipating large changes and cuts in ECB policy interest rates. These surprises may be tied to the large number of policy meetings, particular characteristics of the EONIA money market, and the unique circumstances of the ECB. An added factor may be the absence of a consistent policy on communicating the current stance if any of the ECB`s policy bias on the future direction of interest rates.
