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Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises?

2021-04-29 Business & Economics
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Release : 2021-04-29
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 305/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises? by : Ms. Sally Chen

Download or read book Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises? written by Ms. Sally Chen. This book was released on 2021-04-29. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.

Assessing Financial Vulnerability

2000-06-01 Business & Economics
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Release : 2000-06-01
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 047/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Assessing Financial Vulnerability by : Morris Goldstein

Download or read book Assessing Financial Vulnerability written by Morris Goldstein. This book was released on 2000-06-01. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The European currency crises of 1992-93, the Mexican crisis of 1994-95, and especially the Asian/global crisis of 1997-98, have all contributed to a heightened interest in the early warning signals of financial crises. This pathbreaking study presents a comprehensive battery of empirical tests on the performance of alternative early warning indicators for emerging-market economies that should prove useful in the construction of a more effective global warning system. Not only are the authors able to draw conclusions about which specific indicators have sent the most reliable early warning signals of currency and banking crises in emerging economies, they also test the out-of-sample performance of the model during the Asian crisis and find that it does a good job of identifying the most vulnerable economies. In addition, they show how the early warning system can be used to construct a "composite" crisis indicator to weigh the importance of alternative channels of cross-country "contagion" of crises, and to generate information about the recovery path from crises. This timely study comes on the eve of impending changes at the International Monetary Fund as that institution reexamines how it reacts to financial crises. Moreover, the study provides "... a wealth of valuable elements for anyone investigating and forecasting adverse developments in emerging markets as well as industrial countries," according to Ewoud Schuitemaker, vice president of the economics department at ABN AMRO Bank.

The efficiency of early warning indicators for financial crises

2000-03-30 Business & Economics
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Release : 2000-03-30
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 552/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis The efficiency of early warning indicators for financial crises by : Jens Michael Rabe

Download or read book The efficiency of early warning indicators for financial crises written by Jens Michael Rabe. This book was released on 2000-03-30. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: The banking and currency crises of the last two decades inflicted substantial financial, economic, and social damage on the countries in which they originated. In this work, the efficiency of early warning indicators for these disastrous economic events is evaluated. An analysis of the traditional and recent literature on currency crises is performed in order to extract potential early warning indicators that are suggested by theory. Alongside others, these candidate indicators are tested in alternative empirical studies that are reviewed in this work. The results are mixed, but somewhat encouraging for further research in this field. Furthermore, the analysis is extended to a critique of systems of early warning indicators currently used by international institutions. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Introduction1 2.The Currency Crisis Literature as a Reference Point for the Identification of Early Warning Indicators4 2.1The Traditional Theory5 2.2Second Generation Models11 2.3A Cross-generation Framework Proposition19 2.4Early Warning Indicators as Suggested by Theory22 3.The Empirical Assessment of Early Warning Indicators24 3.1Univariate Indicators for Financial Crises24 3.1.1Cross-Country Regressions26 3.1.2Multivariate Probit Models35 3.1.3The Signals Approach40 3.2Composite Leading Indicators for Financial Crises48 4.A Critique of Early Warning Indicators Used in Practice53 5.Conclusion64 Appendix68 Bibliography69

Early Warning Indicators of Banking Sector Distress

1999
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Release : 1999
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Book Rating : /5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Early Warning Indicators of Banking Sector Distress by : Michael M. Hutchison

Download or read book Early Warning Indicators of Banking Sector Distress written by Michael M. Hutchison. This book was released on 1999. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

2013-01-30 Business & Economics
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Release : 2013-01-30
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 008/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens. This book was released on 2013-01-30. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

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