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Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

2015-04-17 Business & Economics
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Release : 2015-04-17
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 739/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures by : Evan Hillebrand

Download or read book Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures written by Evan Hillebrand. This book was released on 2015-04-17. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The “Regional Mercantilism” scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.

Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

2015-03-27 Business & Economics
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Release : 2015-03-27
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 891/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures by : Evan Hillebrand

Download or read book Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures written by Evan Hillebrand. This book was released on 2015-03-27. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Top-drawer scenario builders map a unique array of 'big picture' global outcomes shaped by energy prices, economic growth, and global harmony. Better still, they give the reader tools to build her own scenarios. An essential reference for experts concerned with geopolitical and geoeconomic futures. -- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics The way the authors have integrated the International Futures model into scenario analysis is very instructive and amounts to a useful methodological contribution to the literature on scenario analysis. As an energy economist, I also appreciate that the book adds to the usual energy market forecasting exercises that take economic growth as exogenous to the energy markets and ignore political factors. -- Peter Hartley, Mitchell Professor of Economics and Rice Scholar in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute, Rice University Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson have written an interesting and original book in which they analyze several different scenarios for economic growth, energy prices, and international conflict over the next forty years in an engaging and accessible style. I recommend this book to anyone who wishes to understand the range of possible futures. -- James Morrow, Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan

The New Energy Crisis

2016-04-30 Business & Economics
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Release : 2016-04-30
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 187/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis The New Energy Crisis by : J. Chevalier

Download or read book The New Energy Crisis written by J. Chevalier. This book was released on 2016-04-30. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global warming reveals that world energy consumption is on an unsustainable path. This updated second edition of The New Energy Crisis examines the impact of climate change on energy economics and geopolitics, exploring key issues such as energy poverty, renewable and nuclear energy, and focusing on the implications of the Fukushima crisis.

New Energy, New Geopolitics

2015-05-15 Political Science
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Release : 2015-05-15
Genre : Political Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 369/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis New Energy, New Geopolitics by : Sarah O. Ladislaw

Download or read book New Energy, New Geopolitics written by Sarah O. Ladislaw. This book was released on 2015-05-15. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report evaluates the energy and geopolitical shifts that have arisen from the production of shale gas and light tight oil in the United States. It begins by assessing how much the unconventional energy trend has already impacted energy, geopolitics, and national security. The report then posits several possible energy futures that could emerge from the unconventionals revolution. Finally, it offers views on the major geostrategic question: how will the United States seek to utilize this, so far, domestic resource trend, and given the range of potential future energy outcomes, what might the geopolitical and national security implications be. This report pairs with three background reports, all available from Rowman & Littlefield: New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 1: Energy Impacts New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 2: Geopolitical and National Security Impacts New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 3: Scenarios, Strategies, and Pathways

The Geopolitics of Energy

2011 Technology & Engineering
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Release : 2011
Genre : Technology & Engineering
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 708/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis The Geopolitics of Energy by : Jean-Pierre Favennec

Download or read book The Geopolitics of Energy written by Jean-Pierre Favennec. This book was released on 2011. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rarely has the world's energy sector known such a complicated and fragile environment as that being experienced in 2011. Energy demand is increasing rapidly because of growth in the developing countries. It is largely met by fossil fuels : oil, natural gas and coal, and also by hydraulic and nuclear power. The use of all these forms of energy now gives rise to controversy. A year after the uncontrollable oil leaks from the Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico, the consequences of the accident are still being debated. The development of shale gas, currently the source of half natural gas production in the United States, meets strong opposition in a number of European countries. Even more serious, the accident at Fukushima has put into question the future development of nuclear power, particularly in Europe but also in the USA. There is considerable criticism of the use of coal, which is the source for most of the energy needs in China and a number of developing countries, because of its emissions of CO2 and other pollutants. Even traditional biomass, whose use leads to deforestation and to respiratory diseases, and the development of hydraulic power are the subject of debate. How should one judge between these different energies ? How can decisions be taken between reducing consumption and increasing production ? What is the future for new renewable energies ? These are the issues at stake on the energy sector. This book appears just at the right time to provide clear and well documented replies to the questions that all of us, as energy users, are posing. How are the different forms of energy produced ? What does the future hold for them ? Who are the players active in the energy scene ? What are the supply constraints ? What is the impact of the strong growth in India and China on energy resources ? The book is in two parts. The first sets out the major characteristics of the energy sector. The second provides an analysis of the global energy issues region by region and details the geopolitical aspects. This work is well illustrated and accessible to all, as it does not require any specific prior knowledge. It will particularly interest readers seeking a global perspective of a sector that is fundamental both to our economy and also for our international policies.

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