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Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment

2001-01-01 Mathematics
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Release : 2001-01-01
Genre : Mathematics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 745/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment by : Mary A. Meyer

Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Mary A. Meyer. This book was released on 2001-01-01. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.

Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment

1991 Decision making
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Release : 1991
Genre : Decision making
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : /5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment by : Jane M. Booker

Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Jane M. Booker. This book was released on 1991. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement

1990 Decision making
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Release : 1990
Genre : Decision making
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 407/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement by : Mary A. Meyer

Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgement written by Mary A. Meyer. This book was released on 1990. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Uncertain Judgements

2006-08-30 Mathematics
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Release : 2006-08-30
Genre : Mathematics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 304/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Uncertain Judgements by : Anthony O'Hagan

Download or read book Uncertain Judgements written by Anthony O'Hagan. This book was released on 2006-08-30. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

2021-02-19 Business & Economics
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Release : 2021-02-19
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 741/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis by : Anca M. Hanea

Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea. This book was released on 2021-02-19. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.

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