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COVID-19 Impact and Mitigation Policies: A Didactic Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Model Approach

2020-11-08 Social Science
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Release : 2020-11-08
Genre : Social Science
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Book Rating : 427/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis COVID-19 Impact and Mitigation Policies: A Didactic Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Model Approach by : John P. Ansah

Download or read book COVID-19 Impact and Mitigation Policies: A Didactic Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Model Approach written by John P. Ansah. This book was released on 2020-11-08. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an integrated epidemiological-macroeconomic model to analyze the interplay between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activity, as a tool for capacity building purposes. We illustrate a workhorse framework that combines a rich epidemiological model with an economic block to shed light on the tradeoffs between saving lives and preserving economic outcomes under various mitigation policies and scenarios calibrated for emerging market and developing economies. In our benchmark setup, we link the effective contact frequency and labor supply decisions to the current state of the disease progression, allowing for relevant behavioral responses that introduce multiple feedback channels. We showcase the effects of various “smart” mitigation measures, e.g. improved quarantine capacity or targeted labor market restrictions, to alleviate the tradeoffs between health-related outcomes and economic activity, including in response to a second infection wave. The discovery of treatment or vaccine, and the possibility of temporary immunity for the recovered individuals are also considered. The model is further extended to a multisector framework to analyze the sectoral allocation effects of the COVID-19 shock.

Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19

2021-04 Business & Economics
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Release : 2021-04
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 974/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19 by : Mr. Ales Bulir

Download or read book Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19 written by Mr. Ales Bulir. This book was released on 2021-04. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following issues: • Evaluating the full implications from the policies adopted to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy requires a well-developed macroeconomic framework. This note illustrates how such frameworks were used to analyze Colombia and Cambodia's shock impact at the beginning of the pandemic. • The use of macroeconomic frameworks is not to infer general policy conclusions from abstract models or empirical analysis but to help policymakers think through and articulate coherent forecasts, scenarios, and policy responses. • The two country cases illustrate how to construct a baseline scenario consistent with a COVID-19 shock within structural macroeconomic models. The scenario is built gradually to incorporate the available information, the pandemic's full effects, and the policy responses. • The results demonstrate the value of combining close attention to the data, near-term forecasting, and model-based analyses to support coherent policies.

Sustaining lives and livelihoods

2021-02-15 Social Science
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Release : 2021-02-15
Genre : Social Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 941/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Sustaining lives and livelihoods by :

Download or read book Sustaining lives and livelihoods written by . This book was released on 2021-02-15. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social and physical distancing and restrictions on international travel (thereafter “social and movement measures”) have been introduced to reduce the risk of acquiring or spreading infection with COVID-19 in various community settings. Whilst the risk of infection to COVID-19 decreases, social and movement measures exacerbate the economic slowdown and can worsen socioeconomic inequalities. Calibrating social and movement measures is complex as it has direct and indirect health and economic impacts, across different subpopulations, now and in the future, and is characterized by uncertainty, urgency, need for multiple levels of decision-making. In this type of context, there is no one-size-fits-all strategy. But inclusive decision making, systematically informed by data and communicated clearly will promote transparency in the process, increase the legitimacy of the decisions and promote trust between the population and the decision-makers. The World Health Organization and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development describe, in their joint publication, a decision framework to assist countries as they continue to calibrate social and movement measures until there is widespread population coverage with the vaccine.

COVID-19 and Emerging Markets

2020
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Release : 2020
Genre :
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : /5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis COVID-19 and Emerging Markets by : Cem Çakmaklı

Download or read book COVID-19 and Emerging Markets written by Cem Çakmaklı. This book was released on 2020. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt

Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID-19 Era

2021-03-05 Health & Fitness
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Release : 2021-03-05
Genre : Health & Fitness
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 598/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID-19 Era by : Changyong Rhee

Download or read book Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID-19 Era written by Changyong Rhee. This book was released on 2021-03-05. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Asia-Pacific region was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic; it put a strain on its people and economies, and policymaking became exceptionally difficult. This departmental paper contains the assessment of the key challenges facing Asia at this critical juncture and policy advice to the region both to address the current challenges and to build the foundations for a more sustainable and inclusive future. The paper focuses on (1) adjusting to the COVID-19 shock, (2) using unconventional policies when policy space is limited, (3) dealing with debt, and (4) helping the vulnerable and greening the recovery. The paper first presents the different ways countries are adjusting to the COVID-19 shock.

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