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Bayesian Decision Analysis

2010-09-23 Mathematics
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Release : 2010-09-23
Genre : Mathematics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 113/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Decision Analysis by : Jim Q. Smith

Download or read book Bayesian Decision Analysis written by Jim Q. Smith. This book was released on 2010-09-23. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.

Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis

2013-03-14 Mathematics
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Release : 2013-03-14
Genre : Mathematics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 86X/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis by : James O. Berger

Download or read book Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis written by James O. Berger. This book was released on 2013-03-14. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this new edition the author has added substantial material on Bayesian analysis, including lengthy new sections on such important topics as empirical and hierarchical Bayes analysis, Bayesian calculation, Bayesian communication, and group decision making. With these changes, the book can be used as a self-contained introduction to Bayesian analysis. In addition, much of the decision-theoretic portion of the text was updated, including new sections covering such modern topics as minimax multivariate (Stein) estimation.

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

2012-11-07 Business & Economics
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Release : 2012-11-07
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 119/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks by : Norman Fenton

Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks written by Norman Fenton. This book was released on 2012-11-07. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.

Decision Analysis

1988 Bayesian statistical decision theory
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Release : 1988
Genre : Bayesian statistical decision theory
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : /5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Decision Analysis by : J. Q. Smith

Download or read book Decision Analysis written by J. Q. Smith. This book was released on 1988. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

2018-09-03 Mathematics
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Release : 2018-09-03
Genre : Mathematics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 977/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks by : Norman Fenton

Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks written by Norman Fenton. This book was released on 2018-09-03. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.

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