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Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test

1998-11-01 Business & Economics
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Release : 1998-11-01
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 209/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test by : Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo

Download or read book Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test written by Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo. This book was released on 1998-11-01. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One model, and our modifications to it, provide useful forecasts, at least compared with a naive benchmark. The head-to-head comparison also sheds light on the economics of currency crises, the nature of the Asian crisis, and issues in the empirical modeling of currency crises.

Are Currency Crises Predictable?

1997-12-01 Business & Economics
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Release : 1997-12-01
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 632/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Are Currency Crises Predictable? by : Mr.Ilan Goldfajn

Download or read book Are Currency Crises Predictable? written by Mr.Ilan Goldfajn. This book was released on 1997-12-01. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises.

Are Emerging Market Currency Crises Predictable?

2006
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Release : 2006
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Kind : eBook
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Book Synopsis Are Emerging Market Currency Crises Predictable? by : Tuomas A. Peltonen

Download or read book Are Emerging Market Currency Crises Predictable? written by Tuomas A. Peltonen. This book was released on 2006. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature

1998-09 Business & Economics
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Release : 1998-09
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
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Book Synopsis Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature by : Robert P. Flood

Download or read book Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature written by Robert P. Flood. This book was released on 1998-09. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico and Southeast Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates. To improve our understanding of these events, researchers have undertaken new theoretical and empirical work. In this paper, we provide some perspective on this work and relate it to earlier research in the area. Then we derive the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and propose a common framework for analyzing currency crises that draws from both the early first-generation work and the more recent second-generation approach. The cross-generational framework stresses the important role of speculators and also recognizes that the government's commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. In the final section we study the crisis prediction literature and find that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.

A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises

2010-10-01 Business & Economics
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Release : 2010-10-01
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 922/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises by : Juan Yepez

Download or read book A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises written by Juan Yepez. This book was released on 2010-10-01. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In our study, the methods are given the right fundamentals and the right models and are evaluated on how closely the estimated predictions match the objectively correct predictions. We find that all methods do reasonably well when fundamentals are explosive and all do badly when fundamentals are merely highly volatile.

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