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A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: an Application to Cambodia

2020-09-25
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Release : 2020-09-25
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Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 857/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: an Application to Cambodia by : Daniel Baksa

Download or read book A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: an Application to Cambodia written by Daniel Baksa. This book was released on 2020-09-25. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. Our canonical model is adapted to Cambodia and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Complemented with near-term forecasting tools and expert judgment, the dynamics of the model helps to inform policymakers about medium-term transmission channels and thus guide policy advice.

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco

2021-07-16 Business & Economics
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Release : 2021-07-16
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 98X/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco by : Daniel Baksa

Download or read book A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco written by Daniel Baksa. This book was released on 2021-07-16. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. The model focuses on only a few variables that are consistent with the New Keynesian framework. Thanks to its simplicity, it facilitates an initial and intuitive understanding of monetary and fiscal policy transmission channels, and their main impact on economic activity. The model is adapted to Morocco and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of policy responses to a slower-than-expected recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes.

Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19

2021-04 Business & Economics
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Release : 2021-04
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 974/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19 by : Mr. Ales Bulir

Download or read book Using Macroeconomic Frameworks to Analyze the Impact of COVID-19 written by Mr. Ales Bulir. This book was released on 2021-04. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following issues: • Evaluating the full implications from the policies adopted to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy requires a well-developed macroeconomic framework. This note illustrates how such frameworks were used to analyze Colombia and Cambodia's shock impact at the beginning of the pandemic. • The use of macroeconomic frameworks is not to infer general policy conclusions from abstract models or empirical analysis but to help policymakers think through and articulate coherent forecasts, scenarios, and policy responses. • The two country cases illustrate how to construct a baseline scenario consistent with a COVID-19 shock within structural macroeconomic models. The scenario is built gradually to incorporate the available information, the pandemic's full effects, and the policy responses. • The results demonstrate the value of combining close attention to the data, near-term forecasting, and model-based analyses to support coherent policies.

A Semi-Structural Model for Credit Cycle and Policy Analysis – An Application for Luxembourg

2024-07-09
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Release : 2024-07-09
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Book Synopsis A Semi-Structural Model for Credit Cycle and Policy Analysis – An Application for Luxembourg by : Carlos de Resende

Download or read book A Semi-Structural Model for Credit Cycle and Policy Analysis – An Application for Luxembourg written by Carlos de Resende. This book was released on 2024-07-09. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper explores the nexus between the financial and business cycles in a semi-structural New Keynesian model with a financial accelerator, an active banking sector, and an endogenous macroprudential policy reaction function. We parametrize the model for Luxembourg through a mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features dynamic properties that align with theoretical priors and empirical evidence and displays sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities, especially for credit indicators. We find that the credit gap, which remained positive during COVID-19 amid continued favorable financial conditions and policy support, had been closing by mid-2022. Model-based forecasts using data up to 2022Q2 and conditional on the October 2022 WEO projections for the Euro area suggest that Luxembourg's business and credit cycles would deteriorate until late 2024. Based on these insights about the current and projected positions in the credit cycle, the model can guide policymakers on how to adjust the macroprudential policy stance. Policy simulations suggest that the weights given to measures of credit-to-GDP and asset price gaps in the macroprudential policy rule should be well-calibrated to avoid unwarranted volatility in the policy response.

An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines

2021-10-22 Business & Economics
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Release : 2021-10-22
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 718/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines by : Mr. Philippe D Karam

Download or read book An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines written by Mr. Philippe D Karam. This book was released on 2021-10-22. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.

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