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Noise

2021-05-18 Business & Economics
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Release : 2021-05-18
Genre : Business & Economics
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 38X/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Noise by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman. This book was released on 2021-05-18. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

Another Gospel?

2020-10-06 Religion
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Release : 2020-10-06
Genre : Religion
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 753/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Another Gospel? by : Alisa Childers

Download or read book Another Gospel? written by Alisa Childers. This book was released on 2020-10-06. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This may be the most influential book you will read this year.” —Lee Strobel, bestselling author of The Case for Miracles A Movement Seeks to Redefine Christianity. Some Think that It Is a Much-Needed Progressive Reformation. Others Believe that It Is an Attack on Historic Christianity. Alisa Childers never thought she would question her Christian faith. She was raised in a Christian home, where she had seen her mom and dad feed the hungry, clothe the homeless, and love the outcast. She had witnessed God at work and then had dedicated her own life to leading worship, as part of the popular Christian band ZOEgirl. All that was deeply challenged when she met a progressive pastor, who called himself a hopeful agnostic. Another Gospel? describes the intellectual journey Alisa took over several years as she wrestled with a series of questions that struck at the core of the Christian faith. After everything she had ever believed about God, Jesus, and the Bible had been picked apart, she found herself at the brink of despair . . . until God rescued her, helping her to rebuild her faith, one solid brick at a time. In a culture of endless questions, you need solid answers. If you or someone you love has encountered the ideas of progressive Christianity and aren’t sure how to respond, Alisa’s journey will show you how to determine—and rest in—what’s unmistakably true.

The Judgment of the Nations

2011-11-28 History
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Release : 2011-11-28
Genre : History
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 802/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis The Judgment of the Nations by : Christopher Dawson

Download or read book The Judgment of the Nations written by Christopher Dawson. This book was released on 2011-11-28. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Christopher Dawson wrote The Judgment of the Nations in 1942, in the midst of the horrors of World War II.

God's Glory in Salvation through Judgment

2010-11-04 Religion
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Release : 2010-11-04
Genre : Religion
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 350/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis God's Glory in Salvation through Judgment by : James M. Hamilton Jr.

Download or read book God's Glory in Salvation through Judgment written by James M. Hamilton Jr.. This book was released on 2010-11-04. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Exodus 34 Moses asks to see God's glory, and God reveals himself as a God who is merciful and just. James Hamilton Jr. contends that from this passage comes a biblical theology that unites the meta-narrative of Scripture under one central theme: God's glory in salvation through judgment. Hamilton begins in the Old Testament by showing that Israel was saved through God's judgment on the Egyptians and the Caananites. God was glorified through both his judgment and mercy, accorded in salvation to Israel. The New Testament unfolds the ultimate display of God's glory in justice and mercy, as it was God's righteous judgment shown on the cross that brought us salvation. God's glory in salvation through judgment will be shown at the end of time, when Christ returns to judge his enemies and save all who have called on his name. Hamilton moves through the Bible book by book, showing that there is one theological center to the whole Bible. The volume's systematic method and scope make it a unique resource for pastors, professors, and students.

Expert Political Judgment

2017-08-29 Political Science
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Release : 2017-08-29
Genre : Political Science
Kind : eBook
Book Rating : 816/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock. This book was released on 2017-08-29. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

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