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The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia

2016-11-18
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Release : 2016-11-18
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Book Rating : 476/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia by : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv

Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv. This book was released on 2016-11-18. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.

China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown

2016-05-26 Business & Economics
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Release : 2016-05-26
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 568/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown by : Gee Hee Hong

Download or read book China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown written by Gee Hee Hong. This book was released on 2016-05-26. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.

Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade

2016-09-27 Business & Economics
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Release : 2016-09-27
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 686/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade by : Patrick Blagrave

Download or read book Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade written by Patrick Blagrave. This book was released on 2016-09-27. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.

The Global Trade Slowdown

2015-01-21 Business & Economics
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Release : 2015-01-21
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 134/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis The Global Trade Slowdown by : Cristina Constantinescu

Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu. This book was released on 2015-01-21. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

Intraregional Trade in Emerging Asia

2004-04-01 Business & Economics
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Release : 2004-04-01
Genre : Business & Economics
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Book Rating : 066/5 ( reviews)

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Book Synopsis Intraregional Trade in Emerging Asia by : Mr.Harm Zebregs

Download or read book Intraregional Trade in Emerging Asia written by Mr.Harm Zebregs. This book was released on 2004-04-01. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The share of emerging Asia in world trade has increased sharply over the past 25 years. A large part of this increase is the result of booming intraregional trade. This paper investigates the key factors behind the rapid increase in intraregional trade among economies in emerging Asia and its implications for the dependency of economies in the region on the business cycles in the EU, Japan, and the United States. The rise in intraregional trade is largely driven by rapidly growing intra-industry trade, which is a reflection of greater vertical specialization and the dispersion of production processes across borders. This has led to a sharp rise in trade in intermediate goods among economies in emerging Asia, but the EU, Japan, and the United States remain the main export markets for final goods.

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